Should Investors Chase the Recent Rally in Tesla's Stock?

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Tesla TSLA shares spiked +9% on Tuesday after the auto giant stated it delivered 443,956 EV’s during the second quarter which topped most analyst estimates of 439,302 deliveries. 

This comes after Chinese EV automakers such as Nio NIO and Li Auto LI posted increased deliveries for Q2 yesterday with Tesla’s factory in Shanghai being critical to its production.

Extending its latest rebound and soaring over +20% in the last three months, investors may be wondering if it’s still time to buy Tesla’s stock after concerns of slower sales growth caused TSLA to plummet earlier in the year.

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Sales Outlook

Tesla has now missed top and bottom-line expectations for three consecutive quarters so of course Wall Street will pay close attention to its Q2 report on Wednesday, July 17. Tesla’s top-line results will be scoured the most which have been an optimistic indicator of the EV leader’s future earnings potential.

Based on Zacks estimates, Tesla’s Q2 sales are projected at $24.9 billion which would be a slight decrease from the $24.93 billion the automaker brought in a year ago. Overall, Tesla’s total sales are expected to rise just 1% in fiscal 2024 but are projected to jump 15% in FY25 to $113.03 billion. 

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Earnings Estimate Revisions

Positive earnings estimate revisions are typically the biggest indicator of more upside in a stock and unfortunately, Tesla’s fiscal 2024 EPS estimates have fallen -6% in the last 60 days from estimates of $1.99 per share to $1.86 a share. 

However, FY25 EPS estimates are up 1% in the last two months from $2.55 a share to $2.58 per share.

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Takeaway

Tesla’s stock currently lands a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Despite investor sentiment continuing to rise after positive Q2 deliveries, Tesla’s financial results later in the month will be crucial to more upside especially considering the cautious trend of earnings estimate revisions for FY24. 

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