Gold to hit all-time high of Rs 60000, silver may hit Rs 70000 on MCX next year, check key drivers | INTERVIEW

MCX gold prices are likely to hit Rs 54000 per 10 grams, and silver Rs 64,000 per kg by the end of this calendar year, Pritam Patnaik, Head – Commodities, HNI & NRI Acquisitions, Axis Securities, said. In an interview with Surbhi Jain from FinancialExpress.com, Pritam Patnaik said the US Federal Reserve is expected to change its interest rate policy stance from being extremely Hawkish to Dovish, on the back of fledgling signs of the inflation cooling. This, in turn, will imply smaller rate hikes, thereby dragging the Dollar Index and Bond Yields lower. This is likely to push the gold and silver prices higher. Charts showed strength in gold and silver prices. MCX gold is expected to touch a fresh all-time high of Rs 60,000 per gram, while silver on MCX may hit Rs 70,000 per kg next year. Here are the edited excerpts.

Also read: CPI inflation likely to cool off to 6% in 4 months; RBI MPC may raise repo rate by 30-50 bps in Dec meeting

What is your year-end outlook for MCX gold and MCX silver?

By the end of this calendar year, we expect MCX gold prices to touch Rs 54,000 per 10 grams and MCX silver Rs 64,000 per kg.

What are the key triggers and drivers for the yellow metal going ahead?

The factors that led to the collapse in bullion prices will pave way for the rally. A rising interest rate scenario led to an unprecedented rally in the Dollar Index and Bond Yields. As we see fledgling signs of the inflation cooling or even plateauing off, the Fed is expected to change its interest rate policy stance from being extremely Hawkish to Dovish, which in turn will imply smaller rate hikes, thereby dragging the Dollar Index and Bond Yields lower. This is a trigger that will push the gold and silver prices higher.

Amid the market scenario, what should investors’ strategy be – buy on dips, sell on the rise, or neutral?

Amid the market scenario, buy-on dips must be the preferred strategy, going forward.

What trends do you see on charts in MCX gold and silver?

On the weekly chart, gold prices have given a symmetric triangle pattern breakout, which is bullish for the price. Gold is heading towards its multi-month high of 53,000 levels. Sustained buying and monthly close above the resistance level will open up the door for the 56,000-60,000 level by next year. Silver has outperformed gold this week. Prices are up by more than seven per cent. On the weekly chart, prices have given Inverse Head and Shoulder Pattern breakout, which is a bullish sign for prices. As per the pattern, we can expect prices to touch 66,000 levels by next year. Above it, prices may even touch 70,000 levels.

Should investors buy gold if the US Dollar rises?

The sustained rising interest rate scenario shaved off the shine from a non-interest-yielding asset like gold. Thus, a rising USD will have a limited impact on gold prices in a falling interest rate environment.

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